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FAQ
How to read the app and what the numbers mean. We’ll add to this as more questions come in.
Reading the numbers
Fair · Model · Edge · EV
- Fair
- The market's probability with the bookmaker's vig (margin) removed — the honest market consensus.Calcthis side's implied % ÷ both sides' implied %Reference point, not a bet signal.
- Model
- Our projection’s probability the bet hits. Blank for markets we don’t model (e.g. strikeouts).CalcPoisson run model (game lines) or batter projections (hit/HR)Higher = we like it more.
- Edge
- How much more likely we think the outcome is than the vig-free market. What the Best Lines board is ranked by.CalcModel − FairHigher is better; positive means we see value the market doesn’t.
- EV
- Expected return per $1 staked at the best price. Measured against the price you’d actually pay (vig included), so it can read lower than Edge.CalcModel × decimal odds − 1Higher is better; +5% ≈ 5¢ profit per $1 long-run.
How to read the app
The tabs
- Today's Board
- The day's games plus the model's curated top picks and most-likely props — each with a short reason for why it stands out.
- Best Lines
- The best available price for every market across the books, ranked by our model’s edge over the vig-free market. (See the metrics above.)
- Pitch Matchups
- How each pitcher’s arsenal stacks up against hitters, pitch type by pitch type — who has the platoon and pitch-mix advantage.
- Accuracy
- How the model’s past projections have actually scored, so you can judge how much to trust today’s numbers.
- Leaderboards
- Standings and rankings across the app’s tracked metrics.